Gartner has released a report entitled “Gartner’s Top Predictions for IT Organizations and Users, 2010 and Beyond: A New Balance.” Besides being a long title, the report goes long on some interesting trends analysis. No flying cars or mind-controlled computers, but still some prescient conclusions on what’s clearly underway around us now.
Here is a short list of some of Gartner’s prognostications of particular interest to technology marketers (pulled from MediaPost):
- By 2012, 20% percent of businesses will have no ownership of IT assets. Fueled by technological developments in 2009, such as virtualization and cloud computing, there’s a movement toward decreased IT hardware assets and more ownership of hardware by third parties.
- By 2012, India-based IT companies will represent 20% of cloud service providers in the market. Gartner attributes this to companies leveraging their market positions and R&D efforts in cloud computing, resulting in cloud-enabled outsourcing options.
- By 2012, Facebook will lead the pack in developing the distributed, interoperable social Web through Facebook Connect and similar mechanisms. The interoperability will be critical to survival of other social networks.
- Other social networks (including Twitter) will continue to develop with focus on greater adoption and specialization. However, they will all revolve around Facebook.
- By 2014, building on server vitalization and desktop power management as savings in energy costs, more organizations will be driven by the need to be responsible for carbon dioxide emissions and will include carbon costs in business cases. Vendors will have to provide carbon lifecycle statistics for their products.
- In 2012, 60% of a new PCs total life greenhouse gas emissions will have occurred before the user first turns it on. In its lifetime, a typical PC consumes 10 times its own weight in fossil fuels, but around 80% of a PC’s total energy usage occurs during production and transportation. Buyers will be paying more attention to eco labels.
- Online marketing by 2015 will control more than US$ 250 billion in Internet marketing spending worldwide.
- By 2014, mobile and Internet technology will help over 3 billion of the world’s adults to electronically transact. Emerging economies will see increase in mobile and Internet adoption through 2014. Worldwide mobile penetration rate will get to 90%.
- By 2013, mobile phones will replace PCs as the most common device for Web access.
A line in the virtual sand
There’s a confluence of megatrends here that is undeniable. We’re really on the cusp of a computing era that’s less about storage and horsepower and more about access and mobility. Yes, hardware will become increasingly important to the infrastructure that permeates the digital economy, but from a consumer’s perspective, priorities will be about improving the efficacy, simplicity and omnipresence of our connections.
For technology marketers today, that means doing two things to get ready for this very imminent future: get social and go mobile. Listen to and engage customers throughout the social Web. Get your online presence mobile-ready. And get ready to move quickly. All companies will need to respond to this highly dynamic, very fast-moving marketplace.
It reminds me of an allegory I share often:
When the sun rises in the desert, the gazelle awakens and knows that if it doesn’t start moving, it will be eaten.
When the sun rises in the desert, the lion awakens and knows that if it doesn’t start moving, it will go hungry.
So when the sun rises in the desert, whether you are the predator or the prey, the message is clear: START RUNNING.